branching process

Wednesday, June 6, 2018 - 10:00am - 10:50am
Linda Allen (Texas Tech University)
Public health prevention, intervention, and control strategies are designed to prevent the occurrence of an epidemic, to shorten the course of an epidemic, or to reduce the number of cases. To prevent an epidemic, the goal is often to decrease the basic reproduction number R0 to a value below the critical threshold of one. In emerging and re-emerging diseases, differences in host susceptibility and infectivity make it more difficult to assess how intervention and control strategies affect R0, and the probability and duration of an epidemic.
Tuesday, June 5, 2018 - 9:00am - 9:50am
Thomas Kurtz (University of Wisconsin, Madison)
Classical models of biological populations, for example, Markov branching processes, typically model population size and possibly the distribution of types and/or locations of individuals in the population. The intuition behind these models usually includes ideas about the relationships among the individuals in the population that cannot be directly recovered from the model. This loss of information is even greater if one employs large population approximations such as the diffusion approximations popular in population genetics.
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