Probabilistic weather forecasting

Tuesday, April 24, 2018 - 9:30am - 10:00am
Michael Scheuerer (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA))
Hydrological forecasts strongly rely on predictions of precipitation amounts as meteorological inputs to hydrological models. Ensemble weather predictions provide a number of different scenarios that reflect the uncertainty about these meteorological inputs, but are often biased and underdispersive, and therefore require statistical postprocessing. In hydrological applications it is crucial that spatial and temporal (i.e. between different forecast lead times) correlations are adequately represented by the postprocessed forecasts.
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