Transmission Dynamics of Influenza and SARS-CoV-2: Environmental Determinants, Inference and Forecast

Tuesday, May 19, 2020 - 1:25pm - 2:25pm
Jeffrey Shaman (Columbia University)
Dynamic models of infectious disease systems are often used to study the epidemiological characteristics of disease outbreaks, the ecological mechanisms and environmental conditions affecting transmission, and the suitability of various mitigation and intervention strategies. In recent years these same models have been employed to generate probabilistic forecasts of infectious disease incidence at the population scale. Here I present research from my own group describing investigation of the environmental determinants of influenza transmissibility and development of model systems and combined model-inference frameworks capable of simulation, inference and forecast of disease outbreaks with a particular focus on influenza and SARS-CoV-2.