Probabilistic Hazard Mapping and Uncertainty Quantification Based on Granular Flow Simulations

Monday, December 16, 2013 - 10:40am - 11:10am
Lind 305
Elaine Spiller (Marquette University)
PDE models of granular flows are invaluable tools for developing probabilistic hazards maps for volcanic landslides, but they are far from perfect. Epistemic uncertainty -- uncertainty due to a lack of model refinement -- arises through assumptions made in physical models, numerical approximation, and imperfect statistical models. In the context of geophysical hazard mapping, we propose a surrogate-based methodology which efficiently assesses the impact of various uncertainties enabling a quick yet methodical comparison of the effects of uncertainty and error on computer model output.
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