Probabilistic Hazard Mapping and Uncertainty Quantification Based on Granular Flow Simulations
Monday, December 16, 2013 - 10:40am - 11:10am
PDE models of granular flows are invaluable tools for developing probabilistic hazards maps for volcanic landslides, but they are far from perfect. Epistemic uncertainty -- uncertainty due to a lack of model refinement -- arises through assumptions made in physical models, numerical approximation, and imperfect statistical models. In the context of geophysical hazard mapping, we propose a surrogate-based methodology which efficiently assesses the impact of various uncertainties enabling a quick yet methodical comparison of the effects of uncertainty and error on computer model output.