In this talk, I will provide a brief introduction to IBM Research, with particular focus on the Business Analytics and Math Sciences organization, and present an overview of recent internal work in the area of risk and decision analysis. I will describe one initiative in detail, the development of a risk-aware financial planning model to support IBM’s 2015 Roadmap. The initiative provides a mechanism for financial planners within the IBM brands to quantify identified risk scenarios that may impact key assumptions, explore sensitivity of key business performance metrics to uncertainty in the assumptions, and ultimately develop planning strategies to maximize the likelihood of achieving financial targets.
Bonnie Ray is Manager, Risk Analytics, IBM’s T. J. Watson Research Lab. Her area of expertise is applied statistics and stochastic modeling, with particular focus on the use of statistics and optimization for business analytics. Her current interests are in the areas of risk elicitation, risk quantification, and decision making under uncertainty. Since joining IBM, she has played key roles in developing customer targeting models and tools for IBM’s outsourcing businesses, resource demand forecasting methods for workforce management processes, and methods and tools for automated risk assessment in software development. Dr. Ray has over fifty refereed publications and five patents. Prior to joining IBM, she was a tenured faculty member in the Mathematics department at the New Jersey Institute of Technology, and has held visiting appointments at Stanford University, the University of Texas, and the Los Alamos National Laboratory. She is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association and holds a Ph.D. in Statistics from Columbia University and a B.S. in Mathematics from Baylor University.