Seismic Dynamics Prior to and After the Great Earthquakes Worldwide, 1985-2001
Thursday, September 27, 2001 - 2:00pm - 3:00pm
Vladimir Kossobokov (Russian Academy of Sciences)
A novel understanding of seismic process, as an essential part of dynamics of a hierarchical system of blocks-and-faults, has already led to reproducible intermediate-term earthquake prediction technique that passed successfully the testing in forward application, 1985-2001. Earthquakes, at least the largest of them, occur after a comparatively large area of lithosphere experiences rise of seismic activity and after smaller earthquakes probe parts of its source. The first happens at intermediate-term scale of years and can be effectively detected. The second arises in a scale of weeks and shorter. It is hard, if possible, to distinguish this stage of precursory seismic rise without an intermediate-term analysis. The decay of aftershock series is evident, although the Omori law fit is poor for the majority of the great earthquakes.