Long-range Correlations of Seismicity Prior to Strong Earthquake. Simple Model vs. Complex Observations

Wednesday, September 26, 2001 - 2:00pm - 3:00pm
Keller 3-180
Ilia Zaliapin (University of California, Los Angeles)
It is demonstrated that long-range correlations of seismicity precede occurrence of strong earthquakes in Southern California. This is in agreement with the finding made originally for a simple hierarchical model of seismicity. This model uses a Boolean delay equation concept to model the interaction of colliding cascades (direct cascade of loading and inverse cascade of fracturing) that govern the dynamics of seismicity. Distant branches of the system become correlated prior to a fracture at the highest level of the hierarchy. Precursor Accord that depicts this phenomenon is rigorously defined for the model. With the same definition precursor Accord is applied to major branches of S. California's fault network. Its good and stable performance in retrospective prediction of major earthquakes is demonstrated.