Forum: Which Models Seem Most Promising?

Friday, June 14, 2002 - 11:00am - 12:00pm
Keller 3-180
Steven Jaume (College of Charleston), Dan O'Connell (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation), Yosihiko Ogata (The Institute of Statistical Mathematics), David Vere-Jones (University of Victoria)
Of the numerous models that have been used to describe earthquake occurrences, which seem to be the most useful? Which provide thebest fit? Which have the best predictive value? The ETAS, SRMs, and characteristic earthquake models are all starkly opposed to one another --- all are based on entirely different phsyical justifications, and all offer very different results in terms of forecasts. What can be said about the relative merits of these models?