Forum: Which Models are Acceptable?

Wednesday, June 12, 2002 - 11:00am - 12:00pm
Keller 3-180
John Anderson (University of Nevada), Daryl Daley (Australian National University), Alexey Lyubushin (Russian Academy of Sciences), Renata Rotondi (Italian Research Council (CNR))
What are appropriate standards for a stochastic model for earthquake occurrences? What attributes should any such model have in order to be considered complete, useful, and verifiable? For instance, many models seem to summarize certain aspects of seismicity without characterizing the entire process, i.e. the full likelihood of an observed catalog is not obtainable. Are any of these models complete enough to be useful in terms of having actual predictive value? If so, which? If not, what can be done to fix them?