Stochastic Models for Earthquake Occurrences
Wednesday, June 12, 2002 - 9:30am - 10:30am
In this tutorial I want to review in particular the methodology for developing point process models specified through their conditional intensities. Using a range of examples, starting from the simple Poisson process, I shall illustrate how the model framework can be extended to use a variety of different dependencies on the past, as well as additional variables such as magnitudes and spatial locations. I shall say a little also about simulation methods, which are a key both to exploring characteristic features of the model behaviour, and to developing probability forecasts, and about techniques for model-testing and forecast assessment which can also be based on conditional intensity concepts. Important classes of models, such as the ETAS and stress-release models, will be briefly introduced in terms of their conditional intensities, but detailed developments of special models will be left for later sessions.