Campuses:

Multiple Time-scale Climate Controls on Flood probabilities: Examples from the Western United States

Wednesday, November 14, 2001 - 3:00pm - 3:30pm
Keller 3-180
Shaleen Jain (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA))
Climate variability exerts an influence on the flood incidence over a range of time scales. Based on exploratory analysis of historical streamflow, El Niño/Southern Oscillation records, and numerical model results, we provide some illustrative examples of climate-related flood trends, variability, and potential nonstationarity. In light of these results, issues related to the diagnosis and prediction of floods (synchronous with slowly varying climate precursors) are discussed. Implications for water resources operations and planning are also discussed.

References:

Jain, S., and U. Lall, 2000: Magnitude and timing of annual maximum floods: Trends and large-scale climatic associations for the Blacksmith Fork River, Utah. Water Resources Research, 36, 12, 3641-3651.

Jain, S., and U. Lall, 2001: Floods in a changing climate: Does the past represent the future? Water Resources Research, (to appear).

Jain, S., C.A. Woodhouse, and M.P. Hoerling, 2001: Multidecadal streamflow regimes in the interior western United States: Implications for the vulnerability of water resources, Geophysical Research Letters (to appear).