Predictability in Dynamical Systems Relevant to Climate and Weather

Wednesday, October 31, 2001 - 3:30pm - 4:30pm
Keller 3-180
Richard Kleeman (New York University)
Significant progress has occured in the past two decades in climate dynamics and prediction. Particularly simple stochastic models are able to account for both the predictive properties and the variability of the dominant mode of climate variability namely the El Nino phenomenon. Skillful prediction models now exist for this phenomenon for time scales of the order of 6-12 months.

In this talk the implications of this new understanding for the field of dynamical systems predictability are outlined and a new theoretical framework from information theory introduced. This framework has some very interesting possible implications for the relatively mature field of weather prediction which are briefly outlined.