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Modeling disease
transmission
Dramatis personae
Study sites
The Studies—Colorado Springs
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"Demographics,"
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Demographic pattern for 13
network studies
Age, %Male, %African American
Time frame for 13 network
studies
Prevalence of STDs and
HIV—13 studies
"Demographics,"
Slide 23
Exponents and R2 associated
with power law curves for 13 network studies
Degree
distributions
Cumulative probability distribution for interviewed persons—all 13 studies
combined
Uninterviewed person
Degree
distributions
Cumulative probability distribution for interviewed and noninterviewed
persons—all 13 studies combined
Missing Links
Who has not been named?
"Demographics,"
Recursion: definition
Recursion: observations from
data--
all contacts
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Missing
Links:
Estimation of the missing
Missing
Links:
Calculation
Missing Links:
Graphic display
Proportion of Nodes missing
from networks
"Demographics,"
Calculating Kappa from
egocentric data
Estimate of concurrency by
study
Concurrency—SEXUAL partners
Slide 42
"Demographics,"
Transitivity (Clustering)
Transitivity by
study
(all relationships)
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"Demographics,"
Distribution of components
Distribution of
components
Three exceptions
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"Demographics,"
Calculation of Assortativity
Assortativity by age and
ethnicity
All contacts
Assortativity by age and
ethnicity
Stratified by degree—all contacts
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Asssortativity
Summary by type of contact
Summary of Assortativity
findings
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General Observations--1
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Modeling approaches
Empirical data support a
bottom up approach
Connecting these factors to
disease transmission…
Prevalence of STDs and
HIV—13 studies
The challenge
The “Answer”
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