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Modeling disease transmission

Dramatis personae

Study sites

The Studies—Colorado Springs

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"Demographics,"

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Demographic pattern for 13 network studies
Age, %Male, %African American

Time frame for 13 network studies

Prevalence of STDs and HIV—13 studies

"Demographics,"

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Exponents and R2 associated with power law curves for 13 network studies

Degree distributions
Cumulative probability distribution for interviewed persons—all 13 studies combined

Uninterviewed person

Degree distributions
Cumulative probability distribution for interviewed and noninterviewed persons—all 13 studies combined

Missing Links
Who has not been named?

"Demographics,"

Recursion: definition

Recursion: observations from data--
all contacts

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Missing Links:
Estimation of the missing

Missing Links:
Calculation

Missing Links:
Graphic display

Proportion of Nodes missing from networks

"Demographics,"

Calculating Kappa from egocentric data

Estimate of concurrency by study

Concurrency—SEXUAL partners

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"Demographics,"

Transitivity (Clustering)

Transitivity by study
(all relationships)

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"Demographics,"

Distribution of components

Distribution of components
Three exceptions

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"Demographics,"

Calculation of Assortativity

Assortativity by age and ethnicity
All contacts

Assortativity by age and ethnicity
Stratified by degree—all contacts

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Asssortativity
Summary by type of contact

Summary of Assortativity findings

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General Observations--1

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Modeling approaches

Empirical data support a bottom up approach

Connecting these factors to disease transmission…

Prevalence of STDs and HIV—13 studies

The challenge

The “Answer”

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