Rise of activity, i.e. inverse cascading, at the approach of an extreme event

Outline

Slide 3

Seismic
background

1992/01

1992/07

1993/01

1993/07

1994/01

1994/07

1995/01

1995/07

1996/01

1996/07

1997/01

1997/07

1998/01

1998/07

1999/01

1999/07

2000/01

2000/01

SGR1806-20 sequence

Common general features

Symptoms of transition to the main rupture

Seismic premonitory patterns

Similarity of starquakes and earthquakes

How to explain such similarity?

Cascading of earthquakes

Bowman, Ouillon, Sammis, Sornette, & Sornette, 1998

Zoller, Hainzl
& Kurths, 2001

Romashkova & Kossobokov, 2001

Cascading of earthquakes

Worldwide performance of earthquake prediction algorithms M8 and M8-MSc: Magnitude 8.0 or more.

How earthquake prediction methods work?

What stands behind?

One example from ENE off Tibet

Schematic representation of
the electromagnetic station at Song Shan

Frequency-Time diagrams for the NS 250 m line

Signal evolution

The signal start
and collapse

Conclusion

This presentation was supported from the ISTC grant #1538.