Prediction of Oil Production With Confidence Intervals*

 Application of Prediction Theory

Basic Idea: I

Basic Idea: II

Basic Idea: III

Basic Idea: IV

New Idea:  Arrival Time Error Models

Arrival Time Model is Simple, Robust

Posterior reduces choices and uncertainty

New Result:

Problem Formulation

Simple Reservoir Description



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 Examples of Upscaled,
 Exact Oil Cut Curves

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 Bayes Theorem

Errors and Discrepancies


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Model Reduction:

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Confidence Intervals

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Arrival Time Error Analysis

Covariance Matrix: 10x10 Scaleup

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Confidence intervals for arrival time error model (%)

Arrival time error model vs. solution value model: confidence intervals (%) for s = 0.6 and 10x10 scaleup

Summary and Conclusions