Institute for Mathematics and Its Applications
Talk abstract:
The examination of genetic patterns found in the DNA of
biological specimens at crime scenes has become an important and
widespread tool for forensic analysis. An important component of this
technology is the assessment of how likely it is for the genetic patterns
in two different samples to match when in fact they are not from the same
person. The techniques for estimating these statistics currently
employed by essentially all forensic laboratories in the United States is
to assume statistical independence among multiple gene loci and to ignore
the possibility that laboratory errors may give rise to erroneous
matches. A recent report by the National Research Council (NRC) has made
many recommendations which generally support the current practices in
forensic laboratories and contradict recommendations of an earlier report
by the NRC on this same topic. I present an assessment of the
recommendations of the new NRC report. In particular I address what is
known about false positives in forensic laboratories, the extent to which
forensic laboratories have followed recommendations in actual case work
and what I consider rational solutions to these problems.
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