Talk
Abstract:
Chemical 4D Variational Data Assimilation and Its Numerical Implications
for Case Study Analyses
Hendrik
Elbern
Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology
(EURAD)
University of Cologne, Cologne, FRG
he@eurad.uni-koeln.de
http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/eurad/index.html
Numerous
methods of data assimilation algorithms have been developed
in recent years, primarily elaborating on the feasibility to
include observations over a time span, that is, space-time data
assimilation methods. Most prominently, the four-dimensional
variational data assimilation algorithm (4D-var) recently introduced
in chemical data assimilation holds promise to exploit observations
with beneficial impact for analyses of non observed species,
which are chemically closely related to observed constituents.
The principal drawback of these methods is the high computational
expenditure.
The rationale of the data assimilation efforts at the University
of Cologne is to identify a consistent chemical state of the
European troposphere, combining actual measurements, a priori
knowledge from climatologies or prior simulations and a comprehensive
chemistry transport model. The practical use is the identification
of optimal initial values for ensuing forecast runs.
While data assimilation is widely associated with identification
of initial values or state analysis, space-time assimilation
algorithms can also be taken for the optimization of other modeled
parameters, like emission rates, deposition velocities, boundary
values and others. The present implementation, for which results
will be given, allows for the optimization of initial values
and emission rates.
Special emphasis will be placed on the 'a priori knowledge,'
the proper formulation of which ensures that the analysis results
are also controlled by climatological data as far as introduced.
This item includes the question of the design of the background
error covariance matrix.
The underlying model is the EURopean Air pollution Dispersion
(EURAD) model (CTM2), of which the adjoint version is based
on the RADM2 gas phase mechanism. Results will be illustrated
in more detail by a case study. A first application of the 4--dimensional
variational technique to a real case study of an ozone episode
during August 1997 will be presented. A number of about 400
measurement stations, mostly confined to central Europe, is
available.
Generally, a significant performance improvement can be claimed
not only during the assimilation interval from 6 to 12 GMT,
but also for the following day. The favourable performance degrades
however, presumably due to misspecified emission rates, coarse
resolution, erroneous meteorological data and further biased
parameters.
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Reactive Flows and Transport Phenomena
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