HOME    »    PROGRAMS/ACTIVITIES    »    Annual Thematic Program
Fall 2002
IMA Special Hot Topics Workshop
Operational Modeling and Biodefense: Problems, Techniques, and Opportunities
September 28, 2002

2002-2003 Program: Optimization

Cosponsored with the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) and with additional support from the University of Minnesota Consortium on Law and Values in Health, Environment & the Life Sciences.


Douglas N. Arnold
Director, IMA

Mac Hyman
Mathematical Modeling and Analysis, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Edward H. Kaplan
William N. and Marie A. Beach Professor of Management Sciences
Yale University


Even before the September 11 terrorist attacks, the multiple threats posed by bioterrorism had been scrutinized for some time. The greatest attention has been devoted to identifying and classifying various offensive biological agents. The Centers for Disease Control describes three agent/disease categories in descending order of threat (see http://www.bt.cdc.gov/Agent/Agentlist.asp). The most serious concerns are those contained in Category A: anthrax, botulism, plague, smallpox, tularemia, and viral hemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola.

While epidemiologists and other medical scientists have invested considerable time and energy in describing the mode of transmission/spread and disease spectrum of potential offensive biological agents, much less attention has been devoted to the analysis of actual biodefense proposals. The deliberate mailing of anthrax and consequent illness and fatalities provided a bioterror "proof of concept," and also illustrated the inadequacy of decision-making systems in place at the time to respond to such an attack. It seems clear that the actual logistics and operations of biodefense prevention and response policies, in addition to the specifics of whatever bioterror agents are involved, will determine the consequences of future bioterror attacks. In short, what we do to bioterror matters as much as what bioterror does to us.

This conference is the first to highlight the role of mathematical modeling in analyzing the operational and logistical aspects of biodefense planning and response. Presentations will range from discussions of the general threats posed by terrorism to global supply chains to the specifics of proposed emergency responses to a smallpox attack. Issues expected to surface include (but are not limited to) the personnel requirements and assignments required to respond to bioterror events; required inventories of various vaccines and their optimal deployment; and optimal quarantine and vaccination policy. Throughout we will emphasize the importance of actual operations, whether in normally functioning systems (e.g. the US postal service) or in emergency response (e.g. contact tracing and vaccination).

This meeting will bring together a diverse group of scientists, engineers, and others from fields such as operations research, decision science, mathematics, economics, epidemiology, infectious disease, and public health to explore the use of mathematical techniques in countering the threat of terrorism.


All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted.
8:30-8:50 am Registration and Coffee

Reception Room EE/CS 3-176

8:50-9:00 am Welcome and Introduction  
9:00-9:45 am Moshe Kress
Center for Military Analyses, Israel

Operational and Logistical Aspects of Biodefense

Slides:   html    pdf    ppt

9:45-10:05 am
10:05-10:50 am Martin I. Meltzer
Center for Disease Control

Operational Modeling Opportunities in Biodefense


10:50-11:10 am
11:10-11:30 am Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:30 am-12:15 pm Lawrence Wein
Sloan School of Management, MIT
Modeling Bioterror Response Logistics
12:15-12:35 pm
12:35-2:00 pm
Lunch Break
2:00-2:45 pm Glenn Webb
Dept. of Mathematics, Vanderbilt University

Modeling the Spread of Anthrax through the Mail

Slides:    html    pdf    ppt

2:45-3:05 pm
3:05-4:45 pm

Panel and Open Discussion on Modeling Bioterror Preparedness and Response

Edward Kaplan (Yale University)
Stephen Eubank (Los Alamos National Laboratory)
Jim Koopman (University of Michigan)
Slides:    html    pdf    ppt
4:45-5:00 pm Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
5:00-5:30 pm

Closing Discussion

will be led by Ellis McKenzie (National Institutes of Health)

6:45 pm Workshop Dinner at Oddfellows Restaurant
401 East Hennepin Avenue
(612) 378-3179



As of 9/30/2002
Name Department Affiliation
Douglas N. Arnold   Institute for Mathematics and its Applications
Yehuda Bassok Marshall School of Business University of Southern California
Georgios Dalakouras Mathematics Polytechnic Institute-Worcester, MA
Brenda Dietrich Mathematical Sciences IBM Research
Stephen Eubank   Los Alamos National Laboratory
J. Keith Fortowsky Applied Economics University of Minnesota
John Hotchkiss Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine University of Minnesota/Regions Hospital
Richard Jordan   Dynamic Technologies
Hans G. Kaper Applied Mathematics National Science Foundation
Edward Kaplan Management Sciences Yale University
Tom Kepler Center for Human Immunology and Biodefense Duke University Medical Center
Alan King Mathematical Sciences IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center
Jim Koopman Epidemiology SPH-1 University of Michigan
Moshe Kress   Center for Military Analyses Israel
Jim Martyka   University of Minnesota
Ellis McKenzie Fogarty Institute National Institutes of Health
Martin I. Meltzer   Center for Disease Control
Rolf Moehring Institut fur Mathematik Technische Universitat Berlin
Blaine Nelson Modeling and Simulation Synergy, Inc.
Maurice Queyranne Commerce and Business Administration University of British Columbia
Janet Pavelich Strategy, Forces, and Resources Institute for Defense Analyses
Travis Porco    
Tianbing Qian Global IT E-Business Group Motorola Semiconductor Products Sector
Rick Rosenthal Operations Research Naval Postgraduate School
Javad Seyed Operations Research Engineering North Carolina State University
Jeremy F. Shapiro   Slim Technologies
John Sullivan Defense Logistics Synergy, Inc.
Parthasarathy Sundaram Computer Science University of Minnesota
Narayan Venkatasubramanyan   i2 Technologies
Glenn Webb Mathematics Vanderbilt University
Amy R. Wilson Health Services Research and Policy, School of Public Health University of Minnesota
Lawrence M. Wein   MIT Sloan School of Management
S. David Wu Industrial and Systems Engineering Lehigh University
Paul Zipkin Fuqua School of Business Duke University