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Spatio-temporal Patterns in the Geosciences
Mathematics in the Geosciences, September 2001 - June 2002
Leon
Knopoff
Department of Physics and Astronomy
University of California-Los Angeles
knopoff@physics.ucla.edu
Andrei
Gabrielov
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Purdue University
agabriel@math.purdue.edu
Michael
Ghil
Department of Atmospheric Sciences and IGPP
UCLA
ghil@atmos.ucla.edu
Description: Starting with the early work of Lorenz, the problems of the dynamics of complex geophysical systems have inspired and stimulated the exciting discoveries of nonlinear physics of the past few decades. The phenomenology of the organization of infinite-dimensional and high- dimensional geophysical systems into complex and often unstable spatio-temporal patterns is and will be a wellspring of problems for the mathematical geosciences at the present and will remain so for many decades. Among others, the problems for which we have no answers at present, we identify the following questions:
1) How deeply into the physics at smaller and smaller scales must one go to be able to describe adequately pattern formation and its fluctuations in systems with many interacting scales of variability
2) How does one formulate the problems of the interaction between physics and geometry in pattern formation in nonlinear geophysical systems, i.e. between small-scale homogeneity and large-scale heterogeneity?
3) At what level does dynamics, i.e., inertia, become important as an influence on pattern formation in nonlinear geophysical systems?
4) How does one determine the average behavior or "background" in strongly fluctuating systems and its limits of applicability, how do fluctuations emerge from the background, and can a basis be developed for prediction of such fluctuations?
5) What are the appropriate tools for describing fluctuating spatio-temporal patterns?
In this workshop we discuss the observations of patterns in the geosciences and contemporary efforts to model them in studies of the nonlinear geophysics of the solid, liquid, gaseous and granular earth. Examples will be given of the problems of the changing landscape due to erosion and stream/ocean particulate transport, mountain building, plate tectonics, earthquakes, turbulent flows in the atmosphere, oceans, mantle, and core, eddy formation, and multi-scale problems in ocean-atmosphere interactions, paleoclimates, among others. Accessible features from associated laboratory experiments will also be given. Special attention will be given to rapid instabilities, such as reversals of the earth's magnetic field, the nature of friction, episodic mantle flows and plume formation, granular systems, climatic regime shifts and oscillations, cyclones, etc. In this workshop, interaction between the observational and modeling communities will be emphasized.
Keywords: natural and anthropogenic, climate variation, "fingerprinting," episodic vs. oscillatory phenomena, fractals and multifractals
| Tuesday | Saturday |
| TUESDAY,
SEPTEMBER 25 All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted. |
||
|---|---|---|
| 8:30 am | Coffee/Registration |
Reception Room EE/CS 3-176 |
| 9:15 am | Douglas N. Arnold, Robert Gulliver, and Andrei Gabrielov | Welcome and Introduction |
| 9:30 am | Donald
L. Turcotte Cornell University |
Self-organized criticality: What is it and what is it good for |
| 10:30 am | Break | Reception Room EE/CS 3-176 |
| 11:00 am | William
I. Newman University of California, Los Angeles |
|
| 12:00 pm |
Lunch
Break
|
|
| 2:00 pm | Michael
Ghil University of California, Los Angeles |
Bifurcations and pattern formation in Earth's fluid envelope |
| 3:30 pm | IMA
Tea (and More) A variety of appetizers and beverages will be served. |
IMA East, 400 Lind Hall |
| WEDNESDAY,
SEPTEMBER
26 All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted. |
||
| 8:30 am | Coffee |
Reception Room EE/CS 3-176 |
| 9:30 am | Vladimir
Keilis-Borok UCLA & Russian Academy of Sciences |
Colliding Cascades Models for Earthquake Prediction |
| 10:30 am | Break | Reception Room EE/CS 3-176 |
| Anastasios
Tsonis University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee |
Spatio-temporal properties of the extratropical atmospheric circulation |
|
| 12:00 pm |
Lunch
Break
|
|
| 2:00 pm | Illia
Zaliapin UCLA and Russian Academy of Sciences |
Slides pdf |
| 3:00 pm | Break | Reception Room EE/CS 3-176 |
| 3:30 pm |
Discussion
|
|
| THURSDAY,
SEPTEMBER
27
All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted. |
||
| 8:30 am | Coffee |
Reception Room EE/CS 3-176 |
| 9:30 am | Eli
Tziperman Weizmann Institute of Science |
A sea ice switch mechanism for the glacial cycles Slides pdf gzipped postscript |
| 10:30 am | Break | Reception Room EE/CS 3-176 |
| 11:00 am | John
A. Whitehead Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution |
Morphological instabilities, oscillations, fingers, channels, and multiple equilibria in mantle upwelling, volcanoes, glaciers, and oceans |
| 12:00 pm |
Lunch
Break
|
|
| 2:00 pm | Vladimir
G. Kossobokov Russian Academy of Sciences |
Seismic dynamics prior to and after the great earthquakes worldwide, 1985-2001 |
| 3:00 pm | Break | Reception Room EE/CS 3-176 |
| 3:30 pm |
Discussion
|
|
| 6:00 pm | Workshop Dinner | Bangkok
Thai restaurant 425 13th Ave. S.E. |
| FRIDAY,
SEPTEMBER 28 All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted. |
||
| 8:30 am | Coffee |
Reception Room EE/CS 3-176 |
| 9:30 am | George
Molchan MITPAN, Russian Academy of Sciences |
|
| 10:30 am | Break | Reception Room EE/CS 3-176 |
| 11:00 am | Robert
Cahalan NASA-Goddard Space Center |
Cloud Structure and Earth's Climate |
| 12:00 pm |
Lunch
Break
|
|
| 2:00 pm | Eugenia
Kalnay University of Maryland |
Low dimensionality in the atmospheric dynamics: implications for data assimilation |
| 3:00 pm | Break | Reception Room EE/CS 3-176 |
| 3:30 pm |
Discussion
|
|
| SATURDAY,SEPTEMBER
29
All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted. |
||
| 8:30 am | Coffee |
Reception Room EE/CS 3-176 |
| 9:30 am | Joseph
Tribbia National Center for Atmospheric Research |
Competing Theoretical Frameworks for Atmospheric Variability: Quasi-geostrophic Turbulence vs Linear Stochastic Dynamics |
| 10:30 am | Break | Reception Room EE/CS 3-176 |
| 11:00 am | Norbert
Schorghofer Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
|
| 12:00 pm |
Discussion
|
|
| 12:30 pm |
Lunch
Break
|
|
| Tuesday | Saturday |
LIST
OF CONFIRMED PARTICIPANTS
(in addition to postdocs and long-term participants)
| Name | Department | Affiliation |
|---|---|---|
| Sukanta Basu | St. Anthony Falls Laboratory | University of Minnesota |
| Daniel E. Bentil | Mathematics and Statistics | University of Vermont |
| Robert Cahalan | NASA-Goddard Space Center | |
| Fabio D'Andrea | Earth, Atmospheric & Planetary Sci. | Massachusetts Insitute of Technology |
| Boyki Dodov | CE | University of Minnesota |
| Martin Du Saire | Soil Water and Climate | University of Minnesota |
| Efi Foufoula-Georgiou | St. Anthony Falls Laboratory | University of Minnesota |
| Andrei Gabrielov | Mathematics | Purdue University |
| Hongjun Gao | Mathematics | Nanjin Normal University |
| Michael Ghil | Atmospheric Sciences | University of California, Los Angeles |
| Agnes Helmstetter | Geosciences | University of Grenoble |
| Eugenia Kalnay | Meteorology | University of Maryland |
| Vladimir Keilis-Borok | Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics | University of California, Los Angeles |
| Vladimir Kossobokov | Int'l Inst. of Earthquake Pred. Theory & Math Geo. | Russian Academy of Sciences |
| George Molchan | Int'l Inst. of Earthquake Pred. Theory & Math Geo. | Russian Academy of Sciences |
| Alan Newell | Mathematics Institute | University of Warwick |
| William Newman | Earth & Space Sciences | University of California, Los Angeles |
| Norbert Schorghofer | Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| Alexandr Shapoval | Int'l Inst. of Earthquake Pred. Theory & Math Geo. | Russian Academy of Science |
| Shahsi Shekhar | Computer Science | University of Minnesota |
| Joe Tribbia | Mesa Lab | NCAR |
| Anastasios Tsonis | Mathematical Sciences | University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee |
| Donald Turcotte | Geological Sciences | Cornell University |
| Eli Tziperman | Environmental Sciences | Weizmann Institute of Science |
| Ranga R Vatsavai | Remote Sensing and GIS Lab | University of Minnesota |
| Venugopal Vuruputur | Civil Engineering | University of Minnesota |
| Jack Whitehead | Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution | |
| Hui Xiong | Computer Science & Engineering | Univesity of Minnesota |
| llia Zaliapin | Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics | UCLA |
| Pusheng Zhang | Computer Science and Engineering | University of Minnesota |
Mathematics in the Geosciences, September 2001 - June 2002
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