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IMA Workshop 1
Spatio-temporal Patterns in the Geosciences
September 25-29, 2001


Mathematics in the Geosciences, September 2001 - June 2002

Organizers:

Leon Knopoff
Department of Physics and Astronomy
University of California-Los Angeles
knopoff@physics.ucla.edu

Andrei Gabrielov
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Purdue University
agabriel@math.purdue.edu

Michael Ghil
Department of Atmospheric Sciences and IGPP
UCLA
ghil@atmos.ucla.edu


Description: Starting with the early work of Lorenz, the problems of the dynamics of complex geophysical systems have inspired and stimulated the exciting discoveries of nonlinear physics of the past few decades. The phenomenology of the organization of infinite-dimensional and high- dimensional geophysical systems into complex and often unstable spatio-temporal patterns is and will be a wellspring of problems for the mathematical geosciences at the present and will remain so for many decades. Among others, the problems for which we have no answers at present, we identify the following questions:

1) How deeply into the physics at smaller and smaller scales must one go to be able to describe adequately pattern formation and its fluctuations in systems with many interacting scales of variability

2) How does one formulate the problems of the interaction between physics and geometry in pattern formation in nonlinear geophysical systems, i.e. between small-scale homogeneity and large-scale heterogeneity?

3) At what level does dynamics, i.e., inertia, become important as an influence on pattern formation in nonlinear geophysical systems?

4) How does one determine the average behavior or "background" in strongly fluctuating systems and its limits of applicability, how do fluctuations emerge from the background, and can a basis be developed for prediction of such fluctuations?

5) What are the appropriate tools for describing fluctuating spatio-temporal patterns?

In this workshop we discuss the observations of patterns in the geosciences and contemporary efforts to model them in studies of the nonlinear geophysics of the solid, liquid, gaseous and granular earth. Examples will be given of the problems of the changing landscape due to erosion and stream/ocean particulate transport, mountain building, plate tectonics, earthquakes, turbulent flows in the atmosphere, oceans, mantle, and core, eddy formation, and multi-scale problems in ocean-atmosphere interactions, paleoclimates, among others. Accessible features from associated laboratory experiments will also be given. Special attention will be given to rapid instabilities, such as reversals of the earth's magnetic field, the nature of friction, episodic mantle flows and plume formation, granular systems, climatic regime shifts and oscillations, cyclones, etc. In this workshop, interaction between the observational and modeling communities will be emphasized.

Keywords: natural and anthropogenic, climate variation, "fingerprinting," episodic vs. oscillatory phenomena, fractals and multifractals

WORKSHOP SCHEDULE

Tuesday Saturday
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 25
All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted.
8:30 am Coffee/Registration

Reception Room EE/CS 3-176

9:15 am Douglas N. Arnold, Robert Gulliver, and Andrei Gabrielov Welcome and Introduction
9:30 am Donald L. Turcotte
Cornell University

Self-organized criticality: What is it and what is it good for

Slides

10:30 am Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00 am William I. Newman
University of California, Los Angeles

Earthquakes as a Nonlinear Dynamical Process

Slides

12:00 pm
Lunch Break
2:00 pm Michael Ghil
University of California, Los Angeles

Bifurcations and pattern formation in Earth's fluid envelope

Slides

3:30 pm IMA Tea (and More)
A variety of appetizers and beverages will be served.
IMA East, 400 Lind Hall
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 26
All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted.
8:30 am Coffee

Reception Room EE/CS 3-176

9:30 am Vladimir Keilis-Borok
UCLA & Russian Academy of Sciences
Colliding Cascades Models for Earthquake Prediction
10:30 am Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
  Anastasios Tsonis
University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Spatio-temporal properties of the extratropical atmospheric circulation

Slides

12:00 pm
Lunch Break
2:00 pm Illia Zaliapin
UCLA and Russian Academy of Sciences

Long-range correlations of seismicity prior to strong earthquake. Simple model vs.complex observations

Slides    pdf

3:00 pm Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:30 pm
Discussion
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 27
All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted.
8:30 am Coffee

Reception Room EE/CS 3-176

9:30 am Eli Tziperman
Weizmann Institute of Science

A sea ice switch mechanism for the glacial cycles

Slides   pdf   gzipped postscript

10:30 am Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00 am John A. Whitehead
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Morphological instabilities, oscillations, fingers, channels, and multiple equilibria in mantle upwelling, volcanoes, glaciers, and oceans
12:00 pm
Lunch Break
2:00 pm Vladimir G. Kossobokov
Russian Academy of Sciences

Seismic dynamics prior to and after the great earthquakes worldwide, 1985-2001

Slides:   html    pdf

3:00 pm Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:30 pm
Discussion
6:00 pm Workshop Dinner Bangkok Thai restaurant
425 13th Ave. S.E.
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 28
All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted.
8:30 am Coffee

Reception Room EE/CS 3-176

9:30 am George Molchan
MITPAN, Russian Academy of Sciences

Fractality in Physical Models: Probability Problems

Slides

10:30 am Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00 am Robert Cahalan
NASA-Goddard Space Center
Cloud Structure and Earth's Climate
12:00 pm
Lunch Break
2:00 pm Eugenia Kalnay
University of Maryland
Low dimensionality in the atmospheric dynamics: implications for data assimilation
3:00 pm Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:30 pm
Discussion
SATURDAY,SEPTEMBER 29
All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted.
8:30 am Coffee

Reception Room EE/CS 3-176

9:30 am Joseph Tribbia
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Competing Theoretical Frameworks for Atmospheric Variability: Quasi-geostrophic Turbulence vs Linear Stochastic Dynamics
10:30 am Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00 am Norbert Schorghofer
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Periodically Spaced Channels in Geomorphology

Slides

12:00 pm
Discussion
12:30 pm
Lunch Break
Tuesday Saturday

LIST OF CONFIRMED PARTICIPANTS
(in addition to postdocs and long-term participants)

As of 9/25/2001
Name Department Affiliation
Sukanta Basu St. Anthony Falls Laboratory University of Minnesota
Daniel E. Bentil Mathematics and Statistics University of Vermont
Robert Cahalan   NASA-Goddard Space Center
Fabio D'Andrea Earth, Atmospheric & Planetary Sci. Massachusetts Insitute of Technology
Boyki Dodov CE University of Minnesota
Martin Du Saire Soil Water and Climate University of Minnesota
Efi Foufoula-Georgiou St. Anthony Falls Laboratory University of Minnesota
Andrei Gabrielov Mathematics Purdue University
Hongjun Gao Mathematics Nanjin Normal University
Michael Ghil Atmospheric Sciences University of California, Los Angeles
Agnes Helmstetter Geosciences University of Grenoble
Eugenia Kalnay Meteorology University of Maryland
Vladimir Keilis-Borok Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics University of California, Los Angeles
Vladimir Kossobokov Int'l Inst. of Earthquake Pred. Theory & Math Geo. Russian Academy of Sciences
George Molchan Int'l Inst. of Earthquake Pred. Theory & Math Geo. Russian Academy of Sciences
Alan Newell Mathematics Institute University of Warwick
William Newman Earth & Space Sciences University of California, Los Angeles
Norbert Schorghofer Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Alexandr Shapoval Int'l Inst. of Earthquake Pred. Theory & Math Geo. Russian Academy of Science
Shahsi Shekhar Computer Science University of Minnesota
Joe Tribbia Mesa Lab NCAR
Anastasios Tsonis Mathematical Sciences University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Donald Turcotte Geological Sciences Cornell University
Eli Tziperman Environmental Sciences Weizmann Institute of Science
Ranga R Vatsavai Remote Sensing and GIS Lab University of Minnesota
Venugopal Vuruputur Civil Engineering University of Minnesota
Jack Whitehead   Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Hui Xiong Computer Science & Engineering Univesity of Minnesota
llia Zaliapin Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics UCLA
Pusheng Zhang Computer Science and Engineering University of Minnesota


Mathematics in the Geosciences, September 2001 - June 2002

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