Probability and Statistics in Complex Systems: Genomics, Networks, and Financial Engineering, September 1, 2003 - June 30, 2004

Organizers:

Martina Morris
Departments of Sociology and Statistics
University of Washington
morrism@u.washington.edu
http://faculty.washington.edu/morrism/

Claudia Neuhauser
Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior
University of Minnesota
cneuhaus@cbs.umn.edu
http://www.cbs.umn.edu/eeb/faculty/NeuhauserClaudia.html

IMA Public Lecture:
Richard A. Tapia
Math at Top Speed: Breaking Myths in the Drag Racing Folklore

Infectious diseases are transmitted from person to person, so our understanding of disease transmission is rooted in a theory of population transmission dynamics. For Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STDs) or Blood Borne Infections (BBIs), where transmission requires an exchange of body fluids, the structure of the contact network plays a particularly critical role. The contact network can be represented as a graph, where the persons are nodes, and the partnerships are edges. Simple mathematical models of disease transmission dynamics through such networks have provided a number of insights through simulation that have led to changes in STD control strategies. Much work has been done in the last 15 years to model HIV transmission, and to collect survey data on the partnership networks. But the link between data and models is still problematic. Random graph models, and the techniques for estimating them, are the natural solution. A class of statistical exponential family models for random graphs has recently been adapted from the spatial statistics literature for social networks. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques can be used for likelihood-based and Bayesian inference. MCMC can also be used to simulate the network for given parameters, thus linking the network data to the network simulation. This workshop will cover the recent advances in network modeling, with applications to disease prevention and other social science fields. Networks, and their associated population dynamics, have a broad range of applications in both the social and physical sciences. The natural audience includes statisticians, epidemiologists, graph theorists, sociologists, and those in bio-behavioral health, ecology and evolutionary biology.

WORKSHOP SCHEDULE
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 17 All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted.
8:30	Coffee and Registration	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
9:15	Douglas N. Arnold, Scot Adams, and Organizers	Welcome and Introduction
9:30	Denis Mollison Heriot-Watt, Edinburgh	Small Worlds and Giant Epidemics Slides:   pdf
10:20	Discussion
10:30	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00	Duncan J. Watts Columbia University	Universal Behavior in a Generalized Model of Contagion Slides:   html    pdf    ps    ppt
11:50	Discussion
12:00	Lunch Break
1:30	Stephen Eubank Los Alamos National Laboratory	Structural Aspects of Massive Social Networks Slides:   html    pdf    ps    ppt
2:20	Discussion
2:30	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:00	SECOND CHANCES, i.e., speakers of the day respond to further questions, suggestions, re-frame their main points, look toward future directions.
3:30	Group Photo here
3:40	IMA Tea and more (with POSTER SESSION) 400 Lind Hall David C. Bell Affiliated Systems Corporation, Houston The HIV Transmission Gradient Slides:   html    pdf    ps    ppt Rodney J. Dyer Iowa State University A Graph-Theoretic Analysis of Global Human Genetic Structure Ken Eames University of Cambridge Contact Tracing and Disease Control Simon D.W. Frost University of California, San Diego Simulation of Epidemiological Models on Networks Matthew Salganik Columbia University Sampling and Estimation in Hidden Populations Using Respondent-Driven Sampling Anne Schneeberger Imperial College, London Sacle-free Networks and Sexually Transmitted Diseases: A Description of Observed Patterns of Sexual Contacts in Britain and Zimbabwe Markus Schwehm Universität Tübingen Stochastic Simulation of Epidemics on Large Contact Networks
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 18 All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted.
9:00	Coffee	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
9:30	Marie-Claude Boily Imperial College, London	The Limits of Sexual Network Data: Implications for Mathematical Modelling of STI Slides:   html    pdf    ps   ppt Paper:   pdf
10:20	Discussion
10:30	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00	Martina Morris University of Washington	The Influence of Concurrent Partnerships on Network Structure and Transmission Dynamics
11:50	Discussion
12:00	Lunch Break
1:30	James Moody Ohio State University	Epidemic Potential in Human Sexual Networks: Connectivity and The Development of STD Cores Slides:   html    pdf    ps    ppt
2:20	Discussion
2:30	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:00	SECOND CHANCES, i.e., speakers of the day respond to further questions, suggestions, re-frame their main points, look toward future directions.
3:30	walk along the Mississippi, weather permitting
4:45	Mark S. Handcock and Jeremy Tantrum University of Washington	Demonstration of Latent Space Models 409 Lind Hall
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 19 All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted.
9:00	Coffee	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
9:30	Phillipa Pattison University of Melbourne	Neighbourhood-based Models for Social Networks: Model Specification Issues Slides:   html    pdf    ps    ppt
10:20	Discussion
10:30	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00	Garry Robins The University of Melbourne, Australia	Exponential Random Graph (p*) Models for Social Networks: The Global Outcomes of Local Model Specifications
11:50	Discussion
12:00	Lunch Break
1:30	Richard Rothenberg Emory University School of Medicine	Large Network Concepts and Small Network Characteristics Slides:   html    pdf    ps    ppt
2:20	Discussion
2:30	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:00	SECOND CHANCES, i.e., speakers of the day respond to further questions, suggestions, re-frame their main points, look toward future directions.
4:00 409 Lind Hall	David R. Hunter Penn State University	Fitting Exponential Random Graph Models via Maximum Likelihood Slides:   pdf
6:00	Workshop Dinner	Peking Garden Chinese Restaurant 2324 University Ave SE Minneapolis, MN 55414 Phone (612) 623-3989
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20 All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted.
9:00	Coffee	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
9:30	Mark S. Handcock University of Washington	Social Networks Models: Inference and Degeneracy
10:20	Discussion
10:30	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00	Peter Hoff University of Washington	Mixed Effects Models for Network Data Slides:   pdf
11:50	Discussion
12:00	Lunch Break
1:30	Tom A.B. Snijders University of Groningen	Simulation-Based Statistical Inference for Evolution of Social Networks Slides:   pdf
2:20	Discussion
2:30	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:00	SECOND CHANCES, i.e., speakers of the day respond to further questions, suggestions, re-frame their main points, look toward future directions.
5-6:30	IMA Reception	IMA East, 400 Lind Hall
7:00 pm Smith Hall 100	IMA Public Lecture: Richard A. Tapia (CAAM) Rice University	Math at Top Speed: Breaking Myths in the Drag Racing Folklore
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 21 All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted.
9:00	Coffee	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
9:30	Alden S. Klovdahl Australian National University	Big Worlds, Isolated Individuals: Some Characteristics of Social Networks of Ordinary People
10:20	Discussion
10:30	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00	Stephen P. Borgatti Boston College	Issues in Identifying Structurally important Nodes in Networks Slides:   pdf Paper:   pdf
11:50	Discussion
12:00	Mark E.J. Newman University of Michigan	How the Structure of Contact Networks Affects Disease Propagation Papers: http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0205009/ http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0205405/ http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0209450/ http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0303183/
1:30	Mark E.J. Newman University of Michigan	How the Structure of Contact Networks Affects Disease Propagation
2:20	Discussion
2:30	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:00	SECOND CHANCES, i.e., speakers of the day respond to further questions, suggestions, re-frame their main points, look toward future directions.
3:30	Concluding Remarks by Organizers
3:40	End of Workshop

LIST OF CONFIRMED PARTICIPANTS

NAME	DEPARTMENT	AFFILIATION
Scot Adams	Institute for Mathematics and its Applications	University of Minnesota
Soohan Ahn	Department of Statistics	Seoul National University
Yusuf Altundas	Institute for Mathematics and its Applications	Schlumberger-Doll
Greg Anderson	School of Mathematics	University of Minnesota
Sevgi Aral	Division of STD Prevention	Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Douglas Arnold	Institute for Mathematics and its Applications	University of Minnesota
Donald Aronson	Institute for Mathematics and its Applications	University of Minnesota
Gerard Awanou	Institute for Mathematics and its Applications	University of Minnesota
Karen Ball	Institute for Mathematics and its Applications	University of Minnesota
Antar Bandyopadhyay	Institute for Mathematics and its Applications	University of Minnesota
Ajay Behl		University of Minnesota
David Bell		Affiliated Systems, Inc.
Jeremy Bellay	School of Mathematics	University of Minnesota
Julian Besag	Department of Statistics	University of Washington
Marie-Claude Boily	Groupe de recherche en épidémiologie	Laval University
Stephen Borgatti	Organization Studies Department	Boston College
Maury Bramson	School of Mathematics	University of Minnesota
Olga Brezhneva	Institute for Mathematics and its Applications	University of Minnesota
Carter Butts	Department of Sociology	University of California, Irvine
Kathleen Carley	Department of Social and Decision Sciences	Carnegie Mellon University
Francesca Chiaromonte	Department of Statistics	Pennsylvania State University
Laura Chihara	Department of Mathematics	Carleton College
Meggan Craft		University of Minnesota
Amy Davidow	Preventive Medicine and Community Health	UMDNJ-New Jersey Medical School
Elenna Dugundji	Faculty of Social and Behavioral Sciences	Universiteit van Amsterdam
Rodney Dyer	Ecology, Evolution and Organismal Biology	Iowa State University
Ken Eames	Department of Zoology	University of Cambridge
Martin Eichner	Institut for Medical Biometrie	Eberhard-Karls-Universität Tübingen
Stephen Eubank	Computer and Computational Sciences Division	Los Alamos National Laboratory
Shmuel Friedland	Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science	University of Illinois at Chicago
Simon Frost	Department of Pathology	University of California, San Diego
Tim Garoni	Institute for Mathematics and its Applications	University of Minnesota
Lael Gatewood	Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology	University of Minnesota
Steve Goodreau	Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences	University of Washington
Balaji Gopalakrishnan	Institute for Mathematics and its Applications	University of Minnesota
Priscilla Greenwood	Department of Mathematics	Arizona State University
Deven Hamilton	Department of Sociology	University of Washington
Chuan-Hsiang Han	Institute for Mathematics and its Applications	University of Minnesota
Mark Handcock	Department of Statistics	University of Washington
Kristen Hassmiller Lich	School of Public Health	University of Michigan
Jenny Heathcote		Carleton College
Peter Hoff	Department of Statistics	University of Washington
David Hunter	Department of Statistics	Pennsylvania State University
Valerie Isham	Department of Statistics	University College
Naresh Jain	School of Mathematics	University of Minnesota
Ann Jolly	Health Canada	University of Ottawa
Lili Ju	Institute for Mathematics and its Applications	University of Minnesota
Christina Kendziorski	Department of Biostatistics and Medical Informatic	University of Wisconsin-Madison
Benjamin Kerr	Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology	University of Minnesota
Mohammad Khan	Department of Mathematics	Kent State University
Dohyun Kim	Department of Statistics	Seoul National University
Alden Klovdahl	Sociology, School of Social Sciences	Australian National University
Thomas Kurtz	Department of Mathematics	University of Wisconsin-Madison
Priscilla Macansantos	Department of Mathematics	University of the Philippines Baguio
Anders Martin-Lof	Department of Mathematics	University of Stockholm
Richard McGehee	School of Mathematics	University of Minnesota
Denis Mollison	School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences	Heriot-Watt University
James Moody	Department of Sociology	Ohio State University
Martina Morris	Department of Sociology and Statistics	University of Washington
Stephen Muth		Quintus-ential Solution
Haewon Nam	Institute of Mathematics and Statistics	University of Minnesota
Claudia Neuhauser	School of Mathematics	University of Minnesota
Mark Newman	Department of Physics	University of Michigan
Michael Newton	Department of Statistics	University of Wisconsin-Madison
Amir Niknejad	Department of Mathematics	University of Illinois at Chicago
Arjendu Pattanayak	Department of Physics	Carleton College
Phillipa Pattison	Department of Psychology	University of Melbourne
Lea Popovic	Institute for Mathematics and its Applications	University of Minnesota
Grzegorz Rempala	Department of Mathematics	University of Louisville
Valencia Remple	Centre for Disease Control	University of British Columbia
Garry Robins	Department of Psychology	University of Melbourne
Richard Rothenberg	Department of Family and Preventive Medicin	Emory University
Matthew Salganik	Department of Sociology	Columbia University
Fadil Santosa	Institute for Mathematics and its Applications	University of Minnesota
Arnd Scheel	School of Mathematics	University of Minnesota
Anne Schneeberger	Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology	Imperial College London
Dave Schruth		University of Washington
Markus Schwehm	Department of Computer Architecture	Eberhard-Karls-Universität Tübingen
Carl Simon	Department of Mathematics	University of Michigan
Tom Snijders	Department of Sociology	Rijksuniversiteit te Groningen
Jeremy Tantrum	Department of Statistics	University of Washington
Richard Tapia	Department of Mathematics	Rice University
Robert Trotter	Department of Anthropology	Northern Arizona University
Jing Wang	Institute for Mathematics and its Applications	University of Minnesota
Nan Wang	Department of Computer Science	University of Maryland
Christopher Warren	Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology	University of Michigan
Stanley Wasserman	Department of Psychology	University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Duncan Watts	Department of Sociology	Columbia University
Stephen Willson	Department of Mathematics	Iowa State University
Yuhong Yang	Department of Statistics	Iowa State University
Ofer Zeitouni	School of Mathematics	University of Minnesota
Zhiwei Zhang	Substance Abuse, Mental Health and Criminal Justice	University of Chicago
Jun Zhao	Institute of Mathematics and its Application	University of Minnesota