University of California, San Francisco
School of Medicine
The emergence of antiviral resistance is an emerging public health problem. I will present a theoretical framework that we have developed and applied to analyze the potential impact of the emergence of drug-resistant herpes simplex type 2 (HSV-2). The mathematical model that we have developed is based upon current biomedical knowledge of the pathogenesis of HSV-2 and the current treatment regimens. I will use the model as a predictive tool: (i) to predict (with a degree of uncertainty) future levels of antiviral resistance, and (ii) to identify which are the key factors in generating the initial emergence of drug resistant strains, and in driving the transmission dynamics of drug resistant strains. I will discuss how the analyses can be used to suggest rational epidemic control strategies.