Partially supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the NIH

Organizers:

Sally Blower
Department of Microbiology & Immunology
University of California, San Francisco
http://www.caps.ucsf.edu/people/blowerbio.html
sally@itsa.ucsf.edu

Carlos Castillo-Chavez
Biometrics Unit
Cornell & Howard Universities
http://www.biom.cornell.edu/Homepages/Carlos_Castillo-Chavez/welcome.html

Kenneth L. Cooke
Department of Mathematics
Pomona College
kcooke@pomona.edu

Denise Kirschner
Department of Microbiology and Immunology
The University of Michigan Medical School
http://www.med.umich.edu/microbio/kirschne.html
kirschne@umich.edu

and

Pauline van den Driessche
Department of Mathematics
University of Victoria
http://www.math.uvic.ca/faculty/pvdd/index.html
pvdd@math.uvic.CA

The world population has passed the six billion mark. This population explosion is accompanied by the growth of urban centers and a global economy. Increased interactions of individuals across the world have facilitated the transmission of well known diseases while creating ample opportunity for the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases. The global spread of HIV, the continued expansion of Lyme disease, the reemergence of tuberculosis and Dengue fever, and the appearance of resistant strains of cholera and malaria provide just a few examples of the challenge that we face today.

This workshop will focus on the study of ecological and evolutionary models in epidemiology and immunology using the theory of dynamical systems and stochastic analysis. Critical questions in these areas will be presented and discussed by researchers with diverse approaches and perspectives, ranging from applied mathematics and statistics to theoretical biology, epidemiology and immunology. The workshop will bring together established and young theoreticians from these fields and will be of interest to those working in epidemiology and immunology, coevolutionary biology and the ecology of vector-transmitted diseases.

The relevant mathematical background for this workshop includes familiarity with dynamical systems and/or stochastic processes. Participants do not need to be specialists in the mathematics or biology of infectious diseases. The workshop will be preceded by two tutorials on the use of deterministic models in epidemiology and immunology.

WORKSHOP SCHEDULE

All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted.

MONDAY, MAY 17
8:30 am	Registration and Coffee	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
9:00 am	Willard Miller, Fred Dulles and Carlos Castillo-Chavez	Introduction
9:30 am	Sally Blower University of California, San Francisco	The Problem of Antiviral Resistance: Prediction & Control
10:30 am	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00 am - 12:00 pm	Herbert W. Hethcote	New Vaccination Strategies for Pertussis
2:00 pm	Ingemar Nåsell Royal Institute of Technology	Recurrent Epidemics are not Chaotic |Talk
3:00 pm	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:30-4:30 pm	Fred Brauer University of British Columbia	Infectious Disease Models with Chronological Age Structure and Disease Age Structure
4:45 pm	IMA Tea	IMA East, 400 Lind Hall A variety of appetizers and beverages will be served.
TUESDAY, MAY 18
9:15 am	Coffee	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
9:30 am	Viggo Andreasen Roskilde University	Epidemiology and Natural Selection in Pathogens with Intermediate Rate of Antigenic Change |Talk
10:30 am	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00 am - 12:00 pm	Horst Thieme Arizona State University	Endemic Models with Arbitrarily Distributed Periods of Infection
2:00 pm	Gustavo Martinez-Mekler Centro de Ciencias Fisicas, UNAM	Lattice Dynamical System Model for the HIV1 Genetic Sequence Evolution |Talk
3:00 pm	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:30-4:30 pm	Andrea Pugliese Universitá di Trento	Virulence Evolution in Macro-parasites |Talk
4:45-5:30 pm	Ingemar Nåsell Royal Institute of Technology	Part II: The Importance of Quasi-stationarity in the Study of Extinction Times for Birth-death Processes with Absorbing States. Applications to the SIS Model |Talk
WEDNESDAY, MAY 19
9:15 am	Coffee	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
9:30 am	Mats Gyllenberg University of Turku	On Fitness in Structured Metapopulation Models with an Application to Epidemics
10:30 am	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00 am -12:00 pm	Zhilan Feng Purdue University	Treatment-induced Schistosome Genetic Diversity
Poster/Video/Software Demo/Short Talk Session
2:00-2:15 pm	Angel Capurro Universidad de Belgrano	Modeling Tuberculosis Transmission With Clusters
2:15-2:30 pm	K. Renee Fister Murray State University	Optimal Control Applied to Cell-Cycle-Specific Cancer Chemotherapy |Talk
2:30-2:45 pm	Don Gaver Naval Postgraduate School	A Stochastic Model for Effects of Mass/Simultaneous Vaccination |Talk
2:45 pm	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:00-3:15 pm	Carlos Hernandez Suarez Cornell University	TBA
3:15-3:30 pm	Michael Li Mississippi State University	Selective Pressures of the Host Population Dynamics on the Evolution of Disease Pathogenecity
3:30-3:45 pm	Maia Martcheva Polytechnic University, (Brooklyn NY)	Diseases With a Chronic Stage in a Population With Varying Size
3:45 pm	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
4:00-4:15 pm	Johannes Müller Utrecht University	Contact Tracing in Stochastic and Deterministic Epidemic Models
4:15-4:30 pm	Abdul-Aziz Yakubu Howard University	Discrete Competitive Systems with Patches
4:30-4:45 pm	Patrick Nelson IMA	Predicting the Effect of Judicious Antibiotic Use on Drug-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae Colonization Among Children in Day-care.
THURSDAY, MAY 20
9:15 am	Coffee	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
9:30 am	Glenn F. Webb Vanderbilt University	Phenotype Evolution in Helicobacter pylori |Talk
10:30 am	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00 am - 12:00 pm	Wenzhang Huang University of Alabama, Huntsville	Traveling Wave Solution and Competitive Exclusion of Multiple Strains in an STD Model
2:00 pm	Neil M. Ferguson Oxford University	Transmission Dynamics of Dengue Virus: Antibody-dependent Enhancement and the Effect of Co-operative Interactions Between Viral Strains on Long Term Epidemic Pattern.
3:00 pm	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:30 - 4:30 pm	Panel Discussion Sally Blower, U of California, San Francisco Tom Lietman, U of California-San Francisco	Antibiotic Resistance
6:00 pm	Workshop Dinner	TBA
FRIDAY, MAY 21
8:45 am	Coffee	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
9:00 am	Pauline van den Driessche University of Victoria	Epidemic Model with Maturation Delay
10:00 am	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
10:15 am	Carl P. Simon University of Michigan	Mathematical Models of the Spread of Influenza A |Talk
11:15 am	Coffee Break	Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:30 am - 12:30 pm	Panel "Workshop Conclusions" Linda Allen Frank Ball Carlos Castillo-Chavez , Moderator Herbert Hethcote	Panel

LIST OF CONFIRMED PARTICIPANTS

as of 5/14/99

Name	Department	Affiliation
Linda Allen	Mathematics	Texas Tech
Kevin Anderson	IMA	University of Minnesota
Viggo Andreasen	Matematik	Roskilde University
Bruce Ayati	IMA	University of Minnesota
Frank Ball	Mathematics	University of Nottingham
Joan Bechtold		Midwest Orthopedic Research Foundation
Robert Berry	Mathematics	University of Houston
Sally Blower	Microbiology & Immunology	UCSF
Mary E. Bradley	Mathematics	University of Louisville
Fred Brauer	Mathematics	University of British Columbia
Angel Capurro	Departamento de Investigacion	Universidad de Belgrano
Carlos Castillo-Chavez	IMA	University of Minnesota
Lester F. Caudill	Mathematics and Computer Science	University of Richmond
Kenneth Cooke		Pomona College
Jonathan Dushoff	Physics	Academia Sinica
Lourdes Esteva		University Nac Autonoma de Mexico
Zhilan Feng	Mathematics	Purdue University
Neil Ferguson	Zoology	Oxford University
K. Renee Fister	Mathematics and Statistics	Murray State University
John Gardner		University of Utah
Don Gaver		Naval Postgraduate School
Kimber Gross	Mathematics	University of Houston
Mats Gyllenberg	Applied Mathematics	University of Turku
Carlos Hernandez	Biomathematics	Cornell University
Herb Hethcote	Mathematics	University of Iowa
Janda Holmes	Mathematics	University of Tennessee
Sarah Holte	Biostatistics	Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
Mary Ann Horn	Mathematics	Vanderbilt University
Shu-Fang Hsu-Schmidt	Mathematical Statistics	University of Bern
Wenzhang Huang	Mathematical Sciences	University of Alabama, Huntsville
Hisashi Inaba	Mathematical Sciences	University of Tokyo
Yoh Iwasa	Biology	Kyushu University
Steve Krone	Mathematics	University of Idaho
Suzanne Lenhart	Mathematics	University of Tennessee
Jia Li	Mathematical Science	University of Alabama, Huntsville
Michael Li	Mathematics and Statistics	Mississippi State University
Tom Lietman	F.I. Proctor Foundation	University of California-San Francisco
Frithjof Lutscher	Lehrstuhl fur Biomathematik	Universitat Tubingen
Maia Martcheva
Gustavo Martinez-Meckler	Laboratorio de Cuernavaca	Instituto de Fisica, UNAM
Douglas Meade	Mathematics	University of South Carolina
Fabio Milner	Mathematics	Purdue University
Olivier Monzin		MORF
Johannes Mueller	Biomathematics - C5P13	Utrecht University
Ingemar Nåsell	Mathematics	Royal Institute of Technology
Douglas E. Norton	Mathematical Sciences	Villanova University
Andrea Pugliese	Dipartmimento di Matematica	Universita degli Studi di Trento
Sonja Sandberg	Mathematics	Framingham State College
Lisa Sattenspiel	Anthropology	University of Missouri
Matthew Schuette	Applied Math and Computational Sciences	University of Iowa
Carl Simon	Mathematics	University of Michigan
Zachariah Sinkala		Middle Tennessee State University
Baojun Song	Biometrics	Cornell University
Moxun Tang	Mathematics	University of Minnesota
Horst Thieme	Mathematics	Arizona State University
Dean T. Tsukayama	Medicine	Hennepin County Medical Center
Pauline Van Den Driessche	Mathematics & Statistics	University of Victoria
Jorge X. Velasco-Hernandez	Mathematics	UAM- Iztapalapa
James Watmough	Mathematics and Statistics	University of Victoria
Glenn F. Webb	Mathematics	Vanderbilt University
Kathryn Weld	Mathematics and Computer Science	Manhattan College
Ralf Wittenberg	Institute For Mathematics & Its Applications	University of Minnesota
Lih-Ing Wu	Mathematics	Purdue University
Abdul-Aziz Yakubu	Mathematics	Howard University
Zhou Yicang	Applied Mathematics	Xi an Jiaotong University
Mary Lou Zeeman	Mathematics and Statistics	University of Texas at San Antonio