HOME    »    PROGRAMS/ACTIVITIES    »    Annual Thematic Program
IMA Workshop
Mathematical Approaches for Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Diseases
May 17-21, 1999



Partially supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the
NIH

Organizers:

Sally Blower
Department of Microbiology & Immunology
University of California, San Francisco
http://www.caps.ucsf.edu/people/blowerbio.html
sally@itsa.ucsf.edu


Carlos Castillo-Chavez
Biometrics Unit
Cornell & Howard Universities
http://www.biom.cornell.edu/Homepages/Carlos_Castillo-Chavez/welcome.html


Kenneth L. Cooke
Department of Mathematics
Pomona College
kcooke@pomona.edu


Denise Kirschner
Department of Microbiology and Immunology
The University of Michigan Medical School
http://www.med.umich.edu/microbio/kirschne.html
kirschne@umich.edu

and

Pauline van den Driessche
Department of Mathematics
University of Victoria
http://www.math.uvic.ca/faculty/pvdd/index.html
pvdd@math.uvic.CA

The world population has passed the six billion mark. This population explosion is accompanied by the growth of urban centers and a global economy. Increased interactions of individuals across the world have facilitated the transmission of well known diseases while creating ample opportunity for the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases. The global spread of HIV, the continued expansion of Lyme disease, the reemergence of tuberculosis and Dengue fever, and the appearance of resistant strains of cholera and malaria provide just a few examples of the challenge that we face today.

This workshop will focus on the study of ecological and evolutionary models in epidemiology and immunology using the theory of dynamical systems and stochastic analysis. Critical questions in these areas will be presented and discussed by researchers with diverse approaches and perspectives, ranging from applied mathematics and statistics to theoretical biology, epidemiology and immunology. The workshop will bring together established and young theoreticians from these fields and will be of interest to those working in epidemiology and immunology, coevolutionary biology and the ecology of vector-transmitted diseases.

The relevant mathematical background for this workshop includes familiarity with dynamical systems and/or stochastic processes. Participants do not need to be specialists in the mathematics or biology of infectious diseases. The workshop will be preceded by two tutorials on the use of deterministic models in epidemiology and immunology.



WORKSHOP SCHEDULE

All talks are in Lecture Hall EE/CS 3-180 unless otherwise noted.

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

MONDAY, MAY 17
8:30 am Registration and Coffee Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
9:00 am Willard Miller, Fred Dulles
and Carlos Castillo-Chavez
Introduction
9:30 am Sally Blower
University of California, San Francisco
The Problem of Antiviral Resistance: Prediction & Control
10:30 am Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00 am - 12:00 pm Herbert W. Hethcote
New Vaccination Strategies for Pertussis
2:00 pm Ingemar Nåsell
Royal Institute of Technology
Recurrent Epidemics are not Chaotic |Talk
3:00 pm Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:30-4:30 pm Fred Brauer
University of British Columbia
Infectious Disease Models with Chronological Age Structure and Disease Age Structure
4:45 pm IMA Tea IMA East, 400 Lind Hall
A variety of appetizers and beverages will be served.
TUESDAY, MAY 18
9:15 am Coffee Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
9:30 am Viggo Andreasen
Roskilde University
Epidemiology and Natural Selection in Pathogens with Intermediate Rate of Antigenic Change |Talk
10:30 am Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00 am - 12:00 pm Horst Thieme
Arizona State University
Endemic Models with Arbitrarily Distributed Periods of Infection
2:00 pm Gustavo Martinez-Mekler
Centro de Ciencias Fisicas, UNAM
Lattice Dynamical System Model for the HIV1 Genetic Sequence Evolution |Talk
3:00 pm Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:30-4:30 pm Andrea Pugliese
Universitá di Trento
Virulence Evolution in Macro-parasites |Talk
4:45-5:30 pm Ingemar Nåsell
Royal Institute of Technology
Part II: The Importance of Quasi-stationarity in the Study of Extinction Times for Birth-death Processes with Absorbing States. Applications to the SIS Model |Talk
WEDNESDAY, MAY 19
9:15 am Coffee Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
9:30 am Mats Gyllenberg
University of Turku
On Fitness in Structured Metapopulation Models with an Application to Epidemics
10:30 am Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00 am -12:00 pm Zhilan Feng
Purdue University
Treatment-induced Schistosome Genetic Diversity
Poster/Video/Software Demo/Short Talk Session
2:00-2:15 pm Angel Capurro
Universidad de Belgrano
Modeling Tuberculosis Transmission With Clusters
2:15-2:30 pm K. Renee Fister
Murray State University
Optimal Control Applied to Cell-Cycle-Specific Cancer Chemotherapy |Talk
2:30-2:45 pm Don Gaver
Naval Postgraduate School
A Stochastic Model for Effects of Mass/Simultaneous Vaccination |Talk
2:45 pm Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:00-3:15 pm Carlos Hernandez Suarez
Cornell University
TBA
3:15-3:30 pm Michael Li
Mississippi State University
Selective Pressures of the Host Population Dynamics on the Evolution of Disease Pathogenecity
3:30-3:45 pm Maia Martcheva
Polytechnic University, (Brooklyn NY)
Diseases With a Chronic Stage in a Population With Varying Size
3:45 pm Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
4:00-4:15 pm Johannes Müller
Utrecht University
Contact Tracing in Stochastic and Deterministic Epidemic Models
4:15-4:30 pm Abdul-Aziz Yakubu
Howard University
Discrete Competitive Systems with Patches
4:30-4:45 pm Patrick Nelson
IMA
Predicting the Effect of Judicious Antibiotic Use on Drug-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae Colonization Among Children in Day-care.
THURSDAY, MAY 20
9:15 am Coffee Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
9:30 am Glenn F. Webb
Vanderbilt University
Phenotype Evolution in Helicobacter pylori |Talk
10:30 am Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:00 am - 12:00 pm Wenzhang Huang
University of Alabama, Huntsville
Traveling Wave Solution and Competitive Exclusion of Multiple Strains in an STD Model
2:00 pm Neil M. Ferguson
Oxford University
Transmission Dynamics of Dengue Virus: Antibody-dependent Enhancement and the Effect of Co-operative Interactions Between Viral Strains on Long Term Epidemic Pattern.
3:00 pm Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
3:30 - 4:30 pm Panel Discussion
Sally Blower, U of California, San Francisco
Tom Lietman, U of California-San Francisco
Antibiotic Resistance
6:00 pm Workshop Dinner TBA
FRIDAY, MAY 21
8:45 am Coffee Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
9:00 am Pauline van den Driessche
University of Victoria
Epidemic Model with Maturation Delay
10:00 am Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
10:15 am Carl P. Simon
University of Michigan
Mathematical Models of the Spread of Influenza A |Talk
11:15 am Coffee Break Reception Room EE/CS 3-176
11:30 am - 12:30 pm Panel "Workshop Conclusions"
Linda Allen

Frank Ball

Carlos Castillo-Chavez , Moderator
Herbert Hethcote

  Panel

LIST OF CONFIRMED PARTICIPANTS

as of 5/14/99
Name Department Affiliation
Linda Allen Mathematics Texas Tech
Kevin Anderson IMA University of Minnesota
Viggo Andreasen Matematik Roskilde University
Bruce Ayati IMA University of Minnesota
Frank Ball Mathematics University of Nottingham
Joan Bechtold   Midwest Orthopedic Research Foundation
Robert Berry Mathematics University of Houston
Sally Blower Microbiology & Immunology UCSF
Mary E. Bradley Mathematics University of Louisville
Fred Brauer Mathematics University of British Columbia
Angel Capurro Departamento de Investigacion Universidad de Belgrano
Carlos Castillo-Chavez IMA University of Minnesota
Lester F. Caudill Mathematics and Computer Science University of Richmond
Kenneth Cooke   Pomona College
Jonathan Dushoff Physics Academia Sinica
Lourdes Esteva   University Nac Autonoma de Mexico
Zhilan Feng Mathematics Purdue University
Neil Ferguson Zoology Oxford University
K. Renee Fister Mathematics and Statistics Murray State University
John Gardner   University of Utah
Don Gaver   Naval Postgraduate School
Kimber Gross Mathematics University of Houston
Mats Gyllenberg Applied Mathematics University of Turku
Carlos Hernandez Biomathematics Cornell University
Herb Hethcote Mathematics University of Iowa
Janda Holmes Mathematics University of Tennessee
Sarah Holte Biostatistics Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
Mary Ann Horn Mathematics Vanderbilt University
Shu-Fang Hsu-Schmidt Mathematical Statistics University of Bern
Wenzhang Huang Mathematical Sciences University of Alabama, Huntsville
Hisashi Inaba Mathematical Sciences University of Tokyo
Yoh Iwasa Biology Kyushu University
Steve Krone Mathematics University of Idaho
Suzanne Lenhart Mathematics University of Tennessee
Jia Li Mathematical Science University of Alabama, Huntsville
Michael Li Mathematics and Statistics Mississippi State University
Tom Lietman F.I. Proctor Foundation University of California-San Francisco
Frithjof Lutscher Lehrstuhl fur Biomathematik Universitat Tubingen
Maia Martcheva    
Gustavo Martinez-Meckler Laboratorio de Cuernavaca Instituto de Fisica, UNAM
Douglas Meade Mathematics University of South Carolina
Fabio Milner Mathematics Purdue University
Olivier Monzin   MORF
Johannes Mueller Biomathematics - C5P13 Utrecht University
Ingemar Nåsell Mathematics Royal Institute of Technology
Douglas E. Norton Mathematical Sciences Villanova University
Andrea Pugliese Dipartmimento di Matematica Universita degli Studi di Trento
Sonja Sandberg Mathematics Framingham State College
Lisa Sattenspiel Anthropology University of Missouri
Matthew Schuette Applied Math and Computational Sciences University of Iowa
Carl Simon Mathematics University of Michigan
Zachariah Sinkala   Middle Tennessee State University
Baojun Song Biometrics Cornell University
Moxun Tang Mathematics University of Minnesota
Horst Thieme Mathematics Arizona State University
Dean T. Tsukayama Medicine Hennepin County Medical Center
Pauline Van Den Driessche Mathematics & Statistics University of Victoria
Jorge X. Velasco-Hernandez Mathematics UAM- Iztapalapa
James Watmough Mathematics and Statistics University of Victoria
Glenn F. Webb Mathematics Vanderbilt University
Kathryn Weld Mathematics and Computer Science Manhattan College
Ralf Wittenberg Institute For Mathematics & Its Applications University of Minnesota
Lih-Ing Wu Mathematics Purdue University
Abdul-Aziz Yakubu Mathematics Howard University
Zhou Yicang Applied Mathematics Xi an Jiaotong University
Mary Lou Zeeman Mathematics and Statistics University of Texas at San Antonio
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