Monday, June 10, 2002 - 9:30am - 10:30am
Bruce Bolt (University of California, Berkeley)
A quick review of form and structure. Spatio-temporal occurrence. Randomness, foreshocks, aftershocks and clustering. Fault elasto-dynamics and mechanical models. Defining marks, their attenuation and variability, and uncertainties: magnitudes, moments, intensities, spectral parameters. Outline of classical seismic hazard and risk analyses from seismicity catalogs with Bayes logic trees and Poisson assumptions. Aleatory and epistemic concepts. Interactions and observational redundancies and empty cells. Extensions to self-exciting and self-correcting and conditional models. Scaling and earthquake self-similarity. Earthquake prediction for risk reduction, engineering and insurance.